Commercial Real Estate Outlook - Q2 2017 - Los Angeles Westside
What's in store for the second quarter with regards to commercial real estate in Los Angeles? George Pino, CEO of Commercial Brokers International, gives his outlook.
Outline:
1. Retail - How is retail looking in Q2? Many store closings & bankruptcies lately – example: JCPenney, RadioShack, Macy’s, Sears, Payless, etc. Do you see more stores closing & companies going under bankruptcy?
2. Also, what will become of these stores on the Westside / Los Angeles? What’s going to happen to these properties? Who will take over these empty locations?
3. Interest rates were raised last month (now up to 1%). Do you see them being raised anytime in Q2?
4. Office – what are the vacancy rates on the Westside?
5. Multifamily – how does construction look like in Q2? Will more apartments continue to be built? Also, will regulations, like Santa Monica’s retrofit law (approved last month), inhibit investors from buying?
There is one topic that's been impossible to ignore for chain restaurant executives in recent months - ghost kitchens, cloud kitchens, or virtual kitchens. It’s yet to be seen how significant these kitchens will become, but there are some indications that the trend is only going to grow.
The mere word “ghost” often causes fear within many people. However, some restaurateurs are starting to embrace this word as a part of their daily activities, creating a new business model with virtual-style restaurants that offer direct delivery. Ghost kitchens take the idea of traditional restaurants and eliminate the role of bartenders, servers, and all other staff, operating with only chefs, dishwashers, managers, line and prep cooks, and delivery drivers. Hence, the term “ghost kitchen” (in simple terms, also known as a delivery-only restaurant).
Together with almost every other sector of the economy, commercial property has been disrupted by Coronavirus and social distancing. For many years, the main declining CRE sector has been retail. However, this sector is no longer suffering alone, since the pandemic is hurting most other CRE sectors: hospitality, office, multi-family, personal services, restaurant, entertainment, and construction.
LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) is a green building certification system that is internationally recognized and provides third-party verification that a community or a building was built and designed using strategies for improving performance across all the most important metrics: energy savings, CO2 emissions reduction, improved indoor environmental quality, water efficiency, and stewardship of resources. It can be applied to all building types – both commercial and residential.
On Nov. 3, 2020, voters will decide about the California Schools and Local Community Funding Act, which will end Prop 13 protection for most of California’s commercial real estate.
This voter initiative, if passed, will require all California commercial real estate — with some exceptions — to be assessed at current market value.
Every owner expects their property to sell or lease quickly, especially in a fast-moving real estate market. But what should you do if the offers don’t start coming in as quickly as you expected - or at all?
Since online retail is growing, and there are not enough industrial buildings, people are forced to find new ways of storing items. Although the demand for big-box industrial space still exists in the urban fringe, the last mile warehouse is about getting all you need close to the customers. After all, you can refill it with trucks from your regional distribution center whenever you need it. Look for spaces in the thousands of feet in buildings that have similarly sized floor plates.